Gmt: The Master of the Market
An in-depth analysis of Rolex's iconic collection in the marketplace
The GMT Master is one of Rolex's most iconic and most historic collections.
Its history began in the 1950s and has evolved over the decades to become one of the most recognizable and desirable models in the entire luxury watch industry.
The history of this watch began in 1954, when the crowned house partnered with Pan American World Airways (Pan Am) for pilots who crossed time zones and needed to keep track of multiple time zones at once.
In fact, at that time the first intercontinental flights were taking off, but these put a strain on the flight crew, and to reduce work stress it was studied that giving the ability to see the time zone of the time of departure gives considerable benefits.
For this reason this complication was developed and debuted with Reference 6542, which featured a bidirectional rotating bezel with 24-hour markings and a black dial with large luminescent markers.
As mentioned earlier, the GMT is one of the most popular Rolex collections on the market, both for vintage models and modern watches such as the ones we will analyze in this article.
Included within the GMTMASTERII10 index provided by WatchAnalytics are some of the most popular and influential references in the secondary market.
The index is made by calculating an arithmetic average of ten references including Pepsi, Batman, Batgirl, and Sprite.
Unlike Royal Oak and Nautilus, in this case the upward phase was less rapid but still very sustained.
The index went from a value of $25.659 in December 2020 to a high of $40.364 in April 2022, realizing a growth of +57.30% in about a year and a half.
After that, the decline began for this model as well, with the price today reaching $27.350, +6.59% in almost three years
In the last six months, however, this reference has experienced a momentary growth around July, after which there was a period of stabilization from August to October when the price rose again.
How do you think this index will perform in the coming months?
Regardless of the great rally that this watch has experienced in the past few years, where the price first rose and then fell, these watches have never fallen below the value of three years ago, thus showing a strong ability to hold on to rather high prices compared to their respective price lists despite the passage of years.
These models remain particularly high on the market as there is always a strong demand from collectors and enthusiasts for these models. Waiting times at authorized dealers often reach many months, which is why so many turn directly to the secondary market always bringing prices up.
Let's start off with a bang by analyzing some of the hottest references on the market and some of the most recognizable, Pepsi, Batgirl, and Sprite.
As can be seen the performance of the two historical colorways is quite different from the last release with crown on the left.
On the one hand, the Pepsi stands out as better with a +11,5% performance compared to the market price three years ago and is also the most expensive configuration of the three. This is due to the fact that at the moment Rolex is having production difficulties in making this bezel coloration and for this reason the watches are being delivered in small quantities, a factor that increases the waiting lists will not meet the huge demand for this model, inevitably pushing prices up.
We talked about this issue in one of our latest IG posts:
Positive performance also for the Bat-Girl, a variant of the Bat-Man with a jubilee bracelet, which is up +6% from three years ago, once again highlighting the resilience of the GMT collection even to the downturn that has gripped the market over the past year and a half.
On the other hand, a very sharply declining percentage for the Sprite, which has lost 60% in price since it was introduced in April 2022.
However, the price is still quite high as it trades at prices above $20k.
High price but plummeting performance: what happened to this watch?
In the months immediately following its release this reference had reached as high as $54k during May 2022, but since then the price has begun to collapse.
The negative performance in this case is explained by a combination of two factors.
The first concerns the end of the hype that often involves new releases. The value in the first few months after launch reaches very high peaks and then collapses once the hype of the new release wanes.
The second relates to the historical moment when this model appeared on the market, in fact just during the spring of 2022 secondary market prices were starting to fall more and more and this factor also involved this watch.
However like all GMTs it still trades at prices still well above its own list price, in this case it is almost double the retail price which is about $11k.
Over the years Rolex production has explored different colors and materials, dealing in addition to steel especially with both yellow and rose gold, such as the 126715CHNR.
The chart in this model is particularly interesting because of the extreme price volatility experienced between late 2021 and early 2022.
The price experienced really rapid growth reaching a high of $64.854 in March 2022. From then on, an even more rapid collapse was triggered, one of the most resounding among the models in this collection. In May 2022 this watch was priced at $51.310, losing -20.88% in just two months.
From then on the curve experienced a stabilization phase, where prices varied much less and today the price is around $43k.
Despite the very sharp drop this timepiece is trading at +9% from its price three years ago and about +10% from its list price.
As we have been able to observe from these analyses, despite the decline in the past periods, the market continues to hold GMTs in high esteem, which still maintain rather high prices both compared to the values of three years ago, i.e., the pre-rally period, but especially compared to its own list price.
Pepsi, Sprite, Root Beer and Batman, whatever the nickname of the watch very often we will see positive values for these kinds of models, which one would you like in your collection?
