Patek Philippe continues to decline in the market, but a potential change may be on the horizon
Patek Philippe faces a declining secondary market, with the iconic Nautilus nearing a critical price point. However, upcoming releases could spark a surprising turnaround
Like most luxury brands, Patek Philippe's secondary market is experiencing a significant decline, with the Nautilus being the clearest example. In recent months, despite occasional brief recoveries, the price of this iconic watch has continued to drop. This trend reflects a broader market uncertainty affecting various Patek Philippe models. Opinions among collectors are divided: some anticipate further drops, while others believe in the long-term recovery potential of these iconic timepieces.
The drop is no longer news, but a new Patek Philippe model release, likely in October, could rekindle excitement among collectors. This new launch might become a turning point, possibly reviving a market that has been on a gradual decline for a couple of years.
Patek Philippe Nautilus
The Nautilus shows a clear downtrend, despite some brief price spikes in April, June, and August. However, prices have continued to decrease, dropping nearly €14,000 compared to last year. September might be the last month where this iconic watch remains priced above €100,000, as some offers below this threshold are already appearing. This is a significant moment since prices below five figures haven’t been seen since 2021.
Posting this news on Instagram, we gathered numerous opinions from our followers, which are vital for understanding the market sentiment. Many believe that the Nautilus price will continue to decline, but others are optimistic that the watch will regain its previous demand, thanks to its iconic status.
Patek Philippe Aquanaut
The Aquanaut has performed relatively better than the 5711. Over the past year, it has lost “only” 1.89%, with some brief price increases, the most notable in April. Prices have been rising again since July, although it's still too early to determine if this is just a temporary spike or something more significant.
Expanding the analysis to more Aquanaut models using the Aquanaut10 index shows that the collection has lost around 7% over the year. Currently, the index stands at €84,844, compared to €91,260 in September 2023. Despite this broader loss, the Aquanaut is faring better than the Nautilus. For instance, the Nautilus15 index was €151,790 last year, but it has since fallen to €132,948, a 12.41% drop.
Patek Philippe Annual Calendar
The market decline also extends to complications like the Annual Calendar 5905/1A. Released in 2021, this model was initially in high demand due to its olive green dial, a color that was extremely popular with Patek Philippe at the time, as seen in the 5711/1A-014.
However, since 2022, the watch has been decreasing in value due to the fading novelty and market challenges. Over the past year, this reference has dropped almost 14%, now slightly below retail price.
The secondary market for luxury watches, particularly for Patek Philippe models like the Nautilus, continues its slow decline. Although the value of the Nautilus 5711/1A-010 is nearing the psychological threshold of €100,000, it remains to be seen if new releases from the brand will reverse this trend. The market is uncertain, divided between those who foresee a long-term recovery and those who fear further drops. The upcoming months will be crucial
