Rolex and Patek: How the Value of Three Legendary Watches Is Evolving
A detailed look at the market performance of the Submariner, Daytona, and Nautilus in recent years
An Italian version of this article is also available on the Orologi “Le Misure del Tempo” website, at this link link.
The luxury watch market is constantly evolving, with iconic models experiencing significant fluctuations. Rolex and Patek Philippe continue to dominate the scene, navigating between price stabilizations and new strategies.
In this in-depth analysis of the secondary market, we examine the latest trends of three emblematic models of high-end sports watchmaking, observing how their value has evolved over recent years and what future scenarios may unfold.
Rolex Submariner 126610LN-0001
Introduced in 1953, the Rolex Submariner was the first dive watch waterproof up to 100 meters, and it remains one of the longest-running models in the brand’s history. While maintaining its iconic aesthetics, it has undergone numerous technical evolutions over time. The most recent update was the transition from a 40mm case to a 41mm one, introduced with reference 126610LN-0001 in 2020.
Like many sports watches, this model experienced a period of rapid growth in the secondary market, peaking at over €15,000 in April 2022. Subsequently, prices declined to more moderate levels, recently stabilizing between €12,000 and €14,000. Analyzing data from June to December 2024, the average price of this model recorded a -6.96% decrease, dropping from €13,245 (June 2024) to €12,323 (December 2024). During this period, the highest value was reached in July at €14,693, while the lowest was recorded in November at €12,297. The early months of 2025 have remained in line with the end of the previous year, hovering around the €12,000 mark.
Rolex Daytona 116500LN-0001
From the depths of the sea to the racetrack, another Rolex icon stands out for its prestige and desirability: the Daytona.
Among the most sought-after models in recent years, reference 116500LN-0001 reached an extraordinary peak value, hitting a record €48,000 exactly three years ago. However, from that moment, the price saw a rapid decline throughout the rest of 2022. The following two years were marked by a phase of stabilization, with a brief recovery in July 2024, when the value rose above €30,000. As of March 2025, the secondary market price stands at €26,344, marking a -44.49% drop compared to its all-time high in 2022.
Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A-001
Regarding to Patek Philippe, the most significant news affecting its market was the discontinuation of reference 5712/1A-001, which took place on February 1, 2025. This move had been anticipated: after replacing the time-only version (ref. 5711/1A) in 2021 with the white gold 5811/1G in 2022, it was only a matter of time before the moon phase variant met the same fate. It is highly likely that this gap will be filled by the new reference 5812, expected in April during Watches & Wonders, also in white gold. This would further confirm Patek Philippe’s strategy of reducing the use of steel in the Nautilus collection.
If this scenario materializes, the 5712/1A-001 could become even more sought-after in the market. However, it is unlikely that its price will return in the short term to the levels seen between 2020 and 2022, when it peaked at €185,000 (March 2022). Compared to that historical high, in 2024, the market value of the 5712 stabilized around €100,000, with a recent recovery bringing the price to its current €105,000. Given the typical dynamics of the watch market following such news, it is plausible that this upward trend will continue, especially if the new reference is indeed offered in gold rather than steel.
While the Submariner and Daytona experience a phase of price stabilization, the Nautilus 5712/1A-001 could see renewed momentum. As every year, Watches & Wonders will be a crucial event for market trends in the coming months.
