Rolex Submariner 126610LN: Full Market Analysis
An in-depth look at the Rolex Submariner 126610LN: price trends, market performance, and insights from exclusive data
This Monday we bring you a different article than usual. It is an experiment to see if you might be interested in more detailed market analysis, enriched by exclusive data from our database, which we have never shared before.
We decided to inaugurate this new format starting with the foundation of luxury watchmaking: the Rolex Submariner with black dial and bezel, in its latest reference currently in production, the 126610LN-0001.
Introduced in 1953, the Rolex Submariner was the first diver's watch to be water resistant to 100 meters, as well as one of the longest-lasting models in Rolex's history. Over the years, while maintaining its iconic aesthetic, the Submariner has undergone numerous technical evolutions.
The latest in that order is the change from 40mm to 41mm case that occurred with the introduction of just the reference 126610LN-0001 in 2020.
Secondary Market Performance
Like so many of the sports watches, this model also experienced a period of great growth on the secondary market, reaching over €15,000 in April 2022. Subsequently, prices fell to more reasonable levels, stabilizing in recent times between €12,000 and €14,000.
Analyzing data from June to December 2024, the average price of this model decreased by -6.96%, from €13,245 (June 2024) to €12,323 (December 2024). During this period, there was a high in July, with the price reaching €14.693, followed by a low in November, with a value of €12.297.
Indexes: ROLEX35 VS SUBMARINER15
To better understand the role of the Submariner within the secondary market, we compared the performance of the ROLEX35 index, which represents a selection of the 35 most popular Rolex models, with the specific SUMBARINER15 index, dedicated to the Submariner.
If you notice a change in the index value from those used in previous articles, it is because we have updated the calculation methodology. Now, for all indexes, the calculation starts on January 1, 2022, with a fixed baseline value of 1,000 points. The variation of an index reflects the percentage trend of the watches included. Using points provides a standardized way to compare index performance, regardless of whether the watches fall within the same price range.
Therefore, comparing the two indexes, as might be expected, we note the very strong correlation between the two, but more importantly, the fact that Submariners have consistently outperformed what is the market average tracked by all Rolexes.
Cumulated Listings
Thanks to our database, we are also able to analyze all the listings posted on major marketplaces. In the period examined, we observed a strong peak during the summer, particularly in July 2024, followed by a slight decline in August, and then resumed steady growth in the following months.
The supply of these watches remains consistently high and increasing month after month. This suggests that many of the watches for sale do not find a buyer immediately, going on to accumulate with new listings, causing continued growth in overall volume.
Listings and Sold
To test whether the price decline is actually due to insufficient demand relative to supply, we have included in the graph below an estimate of the number of watches sold monthly, accompanied by the green columns representing the new listings created each month.
The data show a spike in sales in July, reflected in the price increase that month. However, sales have consistently lagged far behind new ads, contributing to the price decline observed in the first graph.
Final Thoughts
Despite price fluctuations due to demand struggling to keep up with growing supply, the Rolex Submariner 126610LN continues to outperform the average Rolex. It remains an icon of luxury watchmaking, coveted by most enthusiasts and often considered a must-have piece in any collection.
Given the slight decline in recent months, compared to the slump a few years ago, it seems that this watch has found stabilization in the market; we will see if the future holds any surprises.
