Royal Oak: After the Hype, What’s Left?
Let's investigate what's left from the unstoppable growth that the Royal Oak went through in the past few years and what to expect from the market of this new reference.
A week ago Audemars Piguet unveiled a series of new models including some new additions to the Royal Oak collection. The model that generated the most hype was the 16202 in titanium and a smoky burgundy dial. The appearance is reminiscent of the green dial version released in 2022, the difference being that the latter was made of platinum. In all likelihood the new reference will have a really big impact on the secondary market, as has happened to so many new Royal Oak watches released in the past few years. At this time, however, we are experiencing a phase of price stabilization quite different from the growth of a few years ago. 2021 was the time of great market explosion, where everything was driven mainly by two forces: the Royal Oak 15202 and the Nautilus 5711. The prices of these two watches rose month after month, eventually reaching unbelivable prices when the respective maisons decided to discontinue these very two references, thus triggering a market surge never before experienced. Now that this moment of euphoria has waned and prices have fallen, one would be forgiven for wondering: what is left of that period? In this article we will try to answer this question by limiting our research to Royal Oak, in particular, bringing as examples first the reference 16202PT, so as to provide a potential indication of what might happen with the new titanium reference, and then analyzing the iconic 15202.
As is often the case when a watch of this importance enters the market, the price in a short period of time reaches very high peaks and then settles at lower levels. In this case in October 2022 the price reached €420,000, 274% higher than its list price of €112,300. From that point on, the descent began followed by a subsequent stabilization phase that has continued since early 2023. Once the excitement of the novelty wears off it is reasonable to expect a lowering of market values, but in this case the reduction was also marred by the great period of decline that the entire second wrist market has had. The -41% recorded by this reference is given by this series of reasons. Today the market price is €234,726, which, despite last year's sharp decline, is still significantly higher than the list price, as it is more than double (+109%).
The second model we are going to analyze is the quintessential Royal Oak, the 15202. In this case the analysis starts from 2021, the time when we started collecting market data, while for the 16202PT the beginning is 2022 when it entered the second wrist market. If we look at the graph from 2022 onward we see a sharp decline, similar to that of the platinum model. In March last year, the price hit an all-time high of €147,711, then began a downward phase. From that time to the present, the price has halved and now trades at about €70,000. Considering the graph in its entirety, however, it can be seen that to date the price is much higher than it was in 2021, despite the strong period of growth, another similarity to the pattern analyzed above.
The Royal Oak market held up to some extent to the 2022 slump, and this collection still remains of great interest, so much so that the watches are trading at prices well above their respective price lists. The downturn phase has served to bring prices back to lower and more "real" levels, but the second wrist still remains very influential.
