Secondary Market Performance in the First Half of 2024
Rolex Pepsi is struggling with the Watches & Wonders effect, while Daytona, Royal Oak, and Nautilus are reporting falling prices as during 2023
Here we are halfway through 2024, ready to present the detailed analysis of the watch market for these first six months of the year. During this period, the industry has experienced moments of great turmoil and significant changes, with some already observed trends continuing to manifest themselves and new dynamics popping up.
The Pepsi is still in production, how it’s going?
Prior to Watches & Wonders, rumors were chasing each other regarding a possible phase-out of production of the Pepsi. We ourselves talked about it repeatedly, in part because of Rolex's known difficulties in producing the red and blue bezel and the appearance in March of a mysterious patent by the company to produce a red and black bezel.
In short, all indications presaged that Rolex's choice would be to discontinue one of its most iconic watches. The market price, already kept high by the low quantity due to production difficulties, rose higher and higher, only to plummet once the news that the watch remained within the crowned house's catalog was learned.
There is, however, a very interesting element in analyzing what has happened in the past few months to the watch. In fact, the highest peak of €22,310, however, was reached in May 2024, one month after Watches & Wonders, and the price today is still slightly higher than in the "pre-bubble" period at the beginning of the year. This clearly shows how the watch market always takes months to react with respect to a piece of information, in fact in a perfect market once the news of the non-release was learned the price should have sprung down the next month, while in this case in May we even observe the maximum price.
In all likelihood in the coming months this bearish trend will continue and the price will return to the levels of early 2024.
Market Overview - The WA50 Index
A comprehensive view of the market performance in this early part of the year is certainly given to us by our WA50 Index which includes the 50 most popular and influential watches on the market.
As can be seen, 2024 maintained continuity with the previous year, again recording a slight but steady decline.
The index in January stood at €77,973 while it now stands at €73,727, so in six months it has lost -5.4%, a percentage very similar to that realized during the first half of 2023. In fact, last year the index went from €85,069 in January to €81,641 in June, registering a decline of -4%.
With the exception of GMT Pepsi, within the index one struggles to find any watches that have realized any positive returns. Among them, however, we find the two Bulgari Octo Finissimo watches in both chronograph (Ref. 103068) and time-only (Ref. 102713) versions, which have managed to keep their prices virtually unchanged over the past six months.
The Big 3 - Daytona, Royal Oak and Nautilus
Rolex Daytona
In order to analyze how the market has performed during the first half of 2024, one must surely also look at the performance of Daytona, Royal Oak, and Nautilus, which as they have been the most sought-after watches for years, their price movements summarize very well what is happening to the entire secondary market as a whole.
The Daytona registered sharply declining prices in the first months of the year and then had a small jolt just before Watches & Wonders, most likely due to the 'uncertainty that perhaps during the event the maison might present something that would change the fate of the chronograph, although having been updated last year the chances were very low.
From May onward the price continued to fall, registering in six months a decline of -6.59%. All other Daytona watches also record, some more and some less, negative percentages made with some exceptions such as for example the Daytona "Chocolate" (116515LN-0041) which had a small increase of +1.18% and the John Mayer with +1.50%.
Patek Philippe Nautilus
Also for the Nautilus we find the same "Watches & Wonders" effect that we observed for the Daytona, in this case the price rose to a peak of €104,344 in April before collapsing very rapidly in May and registering a small rebound in June that allowed it to close H1 at €104,344.
Like the rest of the market, there was also a decline for 5711, although milder than for Daytona and Royal Oak, in fact it stopped at only -4.29%. Again, for the entire Nautilus collection we find falling prices.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
Audemars Piguet does not participate in Watches & Wonders and therefore the first half of 2024 shows a much more linear decline in prices without the jolt due to the Geneva event.
Among the big 3, the Royal Oak was the worst in this first half of 2024, however the performance would not have been so bad if we stopped at the May price which was €68.336 because the decline would have been only -2.6%. As can be seen from the graph there was a collapse in the last month where the watch lost -8.7%. It will now be interesting to see if this slump is only momentary or will continue in the coming months leading to a drastic reduction in the value of this watch on the secondary market.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion, the watch market continues to be characterized by fluctuations and uncertainties. It will be critical to watch how these trends evolve in the second half of the year, with a focus on key events and possible new product launches. Enthusiasts and investors will need to keep their attention high, ready to seize the opportunities that will inevitably emerge in this fascinating and dynamic sector.
