The Eternal Clash: Royal Oak vs Nautilus
After the hype period, how are these two iconic models from Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe performing?
There are those who prefer the 15202 who prefer the 5711, those who love both, but it is hard to find a watch enthusiast who does not love either one. It is the eternal clash between Royal Oak vs Nautilus.
One thing is certain: in recent years these two watches are by far the most influential in the second-hand market, with prices that have doubled and tripled their retail price.
To gain a clear understanding of how these two iconic collections have performed in the market, we are helped by the indexes provided by WatchAnalytics.
Within RoyalOak15 and Natilus15 are collected the 15 most influential and popular watches of their respective models.
The value in the graph is the arithmetic average of selected watches, among them we find the classic 15202 "Jumbo," the 15400, the chronograph version in reference 26331, and other more complicated models such as perpetual calendars and skeleton models.
In November 2020 the value is €75,732, a year later, in November 2021 it is €160,902, marking a staggering growth of +112.46% so we can see how in exactly 12 months the value of this index has doubled.
After this period, the Royal Oak market continued to grow even faster until March 2022, when it reached its highest peak touching the value of €235.214, or +210.58%, a performance that few times has been seen when it comes to modern watches.
From then on, the market slowed down, with a decline that lasted until the end of 2022. In December last year, in fact, the value of the index reached €163.031, -30.68% in about 9 months.
During 2023 the market stabilized, still registering a small decrease, although much less rapid than that seen the second half of 2022, today the value of the RoyalOak15 is €136,414.
Despite the sharp decline in the last period this index shows that the market for these timepieces is still much higher than the starting level of 3 years ago, in fact in January 2024 this index is 80% higher than the first value we had recorded in November 2020.
The negative period, therefore, has not undone all the growth that occurred previously, and the market for these watches still remains very much alive as so many Royal Oak watches are trading at prices much higher than their retail price.
Nautilus15 also shows a similar trend over the past three years.
Again the index includes a selection of the most influential and popular watches from this iconic Patek Philippe collection, among the models included are the iconic time only ref. 5711 in blue, olive green and rose gold configuration, the various Travel Time, Chronographs and many others.
In December 2020 the quote was €87,425 , since then it has been growing faster and faster with an almost vertical increase between December 2022 and March 2022, when the index reached a high of €276,614.
In about a year and a half the return was +216%. This is truly amazing growth and slightly higher than that achieved by Royal Oak.
From March 2022 onward, just as happened to RoyalOak15, there was a major market decline until the end of the year, when the index was at €166,650, a decline of -40% in the period between March 2022 and December 2022.
In 2023 there was again a period of stabilization and the index is now worth €146,708.
As can be seen not all of the growth that occurred between 2020 and the beginning of 2022 was cancelled out by the subsequent down phase and in fact the total return of Nautilus15 is +67,81%.
The trend and comparison of the Royal Oak and Nautilus indexes shows a strong correlation between these two models. When the market for one is up, so is the market for the other; conversely, when there is a drop for one, the other drops as well.
This phenomenon can be observed especially when comparing the two time-only versions as well as the two most iconic references, the 15202ST and 5711/1A.
Before observing the market trend, it is important to note that these timepieces have rather similar retail prices, just under €30,000, so the secondary market performance is perfectly comparable.
The curve drawn by both watches shows a very strong growth between 2020 and early 2022, when, around March, there was a very rapid acceleration that led to a record price of €195,645 for the Nautilus and €147,711 for the Royal Oak.
From that moment on, until the end of 2022 there was a significant decrease followed by a stabilization phase that lasts throughout 2023.
Although the market slump has been very sharp, all the growth generated in previous years has not been undone, in fact even now 5711 is trading at +49,86% from its price three years ago (€73,931), while 15202 at +40,41% from its February 2021 value of €50,860.
Dwelling instead on rarer (and much more expensive) models, we can see how the market for these has generated even higher returns.
The first case is Audemars' Openworked model; this time, however, no direct comparison can be made with the Nautilus since Patek has never produced a similar version.
With a rose gold case and bracelet and this dial that has been particularly trendy in recent years, this reference has been a huge success and today, despite the decline that has also affected this watch, it trades at almost double its December 2020 price.
As was the case with the two models analyzed above, the 15467 experienced sustained growth between 2020 and 2022, when the price rose vertically from €122,565 to €191,271 in the period between January and March, thus increasing by about €70k.
This last incredible increase was then completely cancelled out by the equally sharp collapse from October to December last year. Since then the price has remained fairly stable at levels that are still particularly high.
Another rare and equally sought-after model is the 5711 with olive dial and diamond bezel. Launched together with the all-steel version, it was the celebratory configuration with which Patek said goodbye to this iconic reference, which is why figures are only available from October 2021 onward.
In this case, however, the evolution was totally different, with a lower value than the one with which this model debuted on the market.
This is explained by the fact that the hype around this reference in the first months after its presentation was enormous and the price soared reaching improbable heights until it reached a maximum value of €1,072,985 in May 2022. Since then, the hype began to wane and, also abetted by the general market slump, the price in the following months steadily declined and now trades at a price -4% lower than the initial price two years ago.
However, the value still remains really high when compared to the list price, which was €82,400, or +726% higher.
Whether we are talking about Nautilus or Royal Oak the market for these two watches always shows very high returns, among the highest in modern watchmaking.
Despite the slump in recent months these models have prices that still remain very high because they are kept solid by strong demand from collectors and enthusiasts.
The near impossibility of finding these references at authorized dealers and the low supply are only driving prices upward.
The market for these references has somehow withstood the crash of 2022, and these collections continue to attract great interest, so much so that watches are trading at prices well above their respective price lists. The downward phase has served to bring prices back to lower, "real" levels, but the second wrist still remains very influential.