The Performance of Ceramic and Skeleton Watches
The performance recorded by our indexes shows positive returns and a solid market for ceramic and skeleton watches
Last month, we launched a new section on our website dedicated to indexes with the aim of providing our users with the opportunity to monitor market performance and track price variations by brand, model, or category of watches, allowing them to assess the broader market performance as a whole. Market indexes are used as benchmarks to compare the evolution of individual watch values with the performance of the reference market index to determine whether they are performing better or worse. Finally, they can be used as indicators to assess interest in a particular class of watches, and this is the focus of the analysis that follows below.
We started by studying our own data to assess the correspondence of market prices with trends that have become more evident in the watchmaking world in recent years. Among the many that we have found for which the excessive growth that lasted until early 2022 has seen massive collapses, as was the case for the index of steel sports watches or that of green dial timepieces, there are others for which the growth recorded, despite being slower, has turned out over time to be more pegged to a real increase in demand and thus to more sustainable and lasting growth. We are talking about two categories of timepieces, skeleton dial watches and ceramic watches.
In recent years, watches with ceramic cases have become increasingly popular among collectors because of their unique and striking appearance. For many brands, ceramic watches have transitioned from being novelties to essential options, often becoming flagship variants for their most popular models, as is the case with Audemars Piguet's Royal Oak. After several years of constant popularity, they can now be found in the collections of the most influential brands in different color variations.
The WatchAnalytics index of the 20 most popular and influential ceramic watches on the market highlights this trend very well. Over the past 3 years, the index has increased by over 75%, and since the beginning of 2023, it has decreased by 8.3%, a percentage that, while not low, is quite competitive in the context of the overall market downturn.
Ceramic offers a clean, elegant, and extremely modern look and is often available in various colors, including white, black, gray, and other neutral tones that give a completely new look to the watch's design. Despite its hardness, ceramic is a lightweight material, making ceramic watches very comfortable to wear. It's important to note that ceramic watches can be more expensive in the retail market compared to stainless steel or other materials due to the production process and the quality of the material itself. However, for many models, ceramic configurations have substantially higher premiums on the secondary market, indicating high demand and interest in these configurations.
Similarly, skeleton watches have become a fashion trend in the world of watchmaking in recent years. These timepieces have historical roots in high-end watchmaking, and many manufacturers have a long tradition in this field, focused on showcasing their craftsmanship. Skeleton watches provide a direct view of the movement, with all the details of the components visible through the dial, highlighting the complex mechanics of the watch. This aesthetic is considered sophisticated and highly appreciated by high-quality watch enthusiasts.
The curve of the WatchAnalytics index of the 20 most popular and influential skeleton watches on the market follows a similar trend to the previous one. Although the year-to-date variation also settles at around 8%, over the past 3 years, this index has recorded a 59% increase, a percentage lower than the previous one, mainly due to a rapid decline that occurred in the last months of 2022. In this second case, however, the curve returned to an upward trend from July 2023.
Next, we will delve into more detail by examining specific references within the WACERAMIC20 and WASKELETON20 to assess the correlation of their prices with the respective index's performance.
The excellent performance that these two indexes have generated over the past three years is supported by the high returns that most of the watches included have generated, but of course there is no shortage of exceptions.
Among the ceramic models, certainly we can’t fail to mention the Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar in white ceramic.
Presented in 2019, it is a boutique exclusive and has a limited production, given the very high complexity both from a technical point of view, we are talking about a perpetual calendar, but also for the use of material, both case and bracelet are entirely made of ceramic.
Since its presentation this watch within the secondary market has always sold above the list price, reaching a maximum value of €427,797. Like most watches, this reference was also affected by the period of decline between 2022 and 2023, but it did not decrease that much. Today it prices at +96.66% above its December 2020 price of €148,148, +176.85% above its retail price of €104,700.
Another rather unusual watch is this Speedmaster with moonphase complication. It is not very common that a Speedmaster features such a complication, in addition to that, the blue ceramic for the case, is what makes this watch even more unusual. Omega does not make much use of this material, certainly not as much as other maisons such as Audemars, for example.
In this case the left subdial is dedicated to constant seconds and the date, while the right subdial brings together the hour and minute counters. The moon phase display features a photorealistic representation of the moon.
The trend on the market is as singular as this reference is. It is a watch completely unrelated to the majority of watches. In fact, it continued to grow especially during 2022 and 2023 just when all other watches were falling. The uniqueness also lies in the fact that despite this splendid growth, the market price is -27.85% below list price €14,300.
As we mentioned earlier, while most of the watches included in these indexes are performing well in the market, there are some exceptions, such as this Royal Oak black ceramic with skeleton dial, which is included in both WACERAMIC20 and WASKELETON20.
This is the first Royal Oak Double Balance Wheel Openworked to be produced with a ceramic case and bracelet. This reference experienced really crazy growth only to suffer a vertical dump in late 2022 and early 2023. This dump nullified all the growth of the previous years and as of today the yield is -19.85% compared to the May 2021 value.
In any case, the market price is still well above retail by +188.33%.
Speaking of Skeleton watches, it is not possible to leave out one of the models that has been most talked about in recent years: the Laureate.
Girard-Perregaux has created a truly stunning collection, and even the finishes of the skeleton dials are of absolute quality.
It took some time before it established itself in the market, in fact the price started to rise in 2022, while some of the most famous watches were about to start dropping. Again, a period of decline can be observed, although it occurred in 2023 and was of a smaller magnitude, as of today this watch is +53.6 % over its value in 2021.
The Cartier, on the other hand, has followed a different trend with a sharp slump that started from November 2022 onward and cancelled out all the growth recorded in previous periods.
It now quotes around +4.64% from the December 2020 price and is -21.27% below the retail price which is €28,500.
Ceramic and skeleton watches are among the most distinctive models in watchmaking in recent years and they certainly represent an evolution toward which the industry is increasingly focusing by launching more and more innovative watches.
At the same time, as can be seen from the returns of the indices and those of most of their component models, these models are highly valued by the market with often positive and rising prices.
These indexes have weathered well the big neck of the months that happened in 2022, performing better than many other indexes that have reduced their value much more.
Thus, on the one hand the development of the industry has facilitated the increasing creation of ceramic and skeleton watches, and on the other hand the tastes of collectors and enthusiasts have led to an increase in the price of these models.
We will see whether in the future this segment will continue to develop as it has so far or we will encounter some new innovation from the industry or the preferences of enthusiast will change.
