Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15407st and 15407OR: Full Market Analysis
An in-depth look at the Audemars Piguet 15407ST and 15407OR: price trends, market performance, and insights from exclusive data
Two weeks ago, we analyzed a Patek icon that the maison had just discontinued. Today, we move to Le Brassus to examine the two Royal Oak Double Balance Wheel Openworked models, discontinued at the end of January.
This year, Audemars Piguet celebrates its 150th anniversary and has already kicked off the year in style by introducing a new caliber and new models, including a fantastic Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar Openworked.
Most likely, among the novelties AP will unveil in the coming months, we will see new Royal Oak time-only Openworked models, which will replace the recently discontinued 15407 references.
Secondary Market Performance
The secondary market trend for these two models has seen a significant decline in recent years. Around March 2022, the 15407ST reached a value of €225,628, while the 15407OR peaked at €344,479.
Since then, their market value has dropped considerably, with the steel model now trading at €128,843 and the rose gold version at €182,608. Compared to their retail prices, these are still high figures: +74.92% for the 15407ST (List Price: €74,300) and +84.49% for the 15407OR (List Price: €98,400).
Analyzing the past ten months, the 15407ST recorded its lowest price in July (€122,235), followed by a bullish peak in September (€136,813). Since then, the value has remained below this threshold. The first data from March 2025 shows a slight uptick compared to February. It will be crucial to determine whether this is merely a temporary rebound or the beginning of a trend reversal, possibly influenced by the discontinuation.
As for the 15407OR, its performance has been closely correlated, although in this case, the highest value in the past ten months was recorded in August (€201,712), while the lowest was in September (€158,327).
Indexes: WASKELETON20 vs WA50
These two watches are included in two of our key indexes. The first, SKELETON20, tracks the 20 most influential skeleton timepieces on the market, while the second, WA50, serves as a benchmark for analyzing the overall performance of the secondary market.
In recent years, skeleton and openworked watches have been extremely popular. However, today, interest in this category, while still strong, seems to have slightly diminished. The graph illustrates how the gap between the SKELETON20 and WA50 indexes has gradually narrowed month after month, indicating a cooling trend in the segment.
Cumulated Listings
Thanks to our database, we can analyze all the listings posted on major marketplaces. During the examined period, we observed a significant increase in the number of models listed for sale. This growth has been relatively steady for both models, with the 15407OR showing a more gradual rise, while the steel version has seen its unsold stock increase at a faster pace.
Listings and Sold
To better understand market dynamics, it is useful to analyze how many watches are listed for sale each month and how many are actually sold. A particularly interesting case occurred between October and November, when a large number of 15407ST models entered the market. Sales for this model have remained fairly steady, with a slight increase in October.
As for the 15407OR, a significant number of listings were created in August, September, and October, with strong sales figures in the first two months. In the following months, sales declined, and in 2025, we have yet to record any new deals.
Final Thoughts
The discontinuation of the Royal Oak 15407ST and 15407OR marks an important moment for Audemars Piguet and the skeleton watch market. While their values have declined significantly from their 2022 peaks, these timepieces remain among the most sought-after by enthusiasts and collectors. The market’s performance in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether these models will stabilize at new price levels or undergo further corrections.
The discontinuation of the Royal Oak 15407ST and 15407OR represents a significant shift in Audemars Piguet’s lineup and in the market for skeletonized/openworked timepieces. While values have softened from their previous highs, these watches remain highly desirable for collectors. The market’s performance in the coming months will depend on whether new releases manage to capture the same level of enthusiasm. Regardless, these references continue to hold a special place in the landscape the most influential modern watches.
