Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A-001: Full Market Analysis
An in-depth look at the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1A: price trends, market performance, and insights from exclusive data
After our first article on the Rolex Submariner 126610LN, today we analyze one of Patek Philippe’s most iconic models and one of the most sought-after references on the market in recent years: the Nautilus 5712/1A-001.
In recent weeks, this reference has been in the spotlight because, on February 1st, Patek Philippe officially announced its discontinuation. In reality, the news had been anticipated for some time. After discontinuing the time-only model (ref. 5711/1A) in 2021 and replacing it with the 5811/1G in 2022, it was only a matter of time before the Moonphase version was also retired. It is highly likely that this gap will be filled by a new reference 5812, which is expected to be unveiled in April during Watches & Wonders and will also be in white gold. This aligns with Patek Philippe’s strategy of further reducing the use of stainless steel in the Nautilus collection.
If this scenario materializes, the 5712/1A-001 could become even more desirable on the market. However, it is difficult for it to return in the short term to the price levels seen between 2020 and 2022, when it peaked at €185,000 (March 2022).
Secondary Market Performance
Compared to its peak nearly three years ago, the market value of the 5712 has now stabilized around €100,000. In June 2023, its average market value was €102,858, but in September and October, it saw a decline, dropping below €100,000 to €99,094 and €99,728, respectively.
Since then, prices have rebounded, and with the discontinuation announcement, the 5712 has reached a new nine-month high of €105,062. Given the typical behavior of the watch market following such news, it is likely that this upward trend will continue, particularly if the new reference is introduced in gold rather than steel.
Indexes: WA50 vs PATEKPHILIPPE35 vs NAUTILUS15
The past few years have been particularly challenging for the Nautilus collection, marked by a significant decline in prices, especially for models less in demand compared to the classic steel versions.
The NAUTILUS15 index, which tracks the most popular references, has consistently underperformed compared to the thematic Patek Philippe index (PATEKPHILIPPE35) and the overall market index (WA50), which have shown nearly identical trends.
The decline in the NAUTILUS15 index has been primarily driven by gold and two-tone steel-gold models, many of which have experienced a steep downturn.
Cumulated Listings
Thanks to our database, we can analyze all the listings posted on major marketplaces. During the examined period, we observed a significant increase in the number of models listed for sale, particularly around September and October, which contributed to the decline in prices we saw in the chart above.
However, in the months leading up to 2025, the number of unsold listings has remained relatively stable, suggesting either a lower influx of new watches for sale or an equal number of listings being removed due to successful sales.
Listings and Sold
To better understand market dynamics, it is useful to analyze how many watches are listed for sale each month and how many are actually sold. A particularly interesting case occurred between October and November, when a large number of 5712 models were released onto the market. In October, sales were low, negatively impacting prices, while the subsequent increase in transactions in November helped stabilize market value.
However, the February data, though only partial, shows a lower-than-expected sales volume despite the discontinuation news. This could indicate that 5712 owners are waiting for prices to rise further before putting their watches up for sale. In the coming months, we might see an increase in transactions, potentially reaching the same levels observed in October and November.
Final Thoughts
The discontinuation of the Nautilus 5712/1A-001 marks a turning point for this iconic Patek Philippe model. Its rarity, combined with the possibility of being replaced by an exclusively gold version, could drive further appreciation in the secondary market.
The market's behavior in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the 5712 will return to its historical peak values or stabilize at more moderate levels. Regardless, for collectors and investors alike, this reference remains one of the most fascinating and sought-after pieces in the world of haute horlogerie.
